Field Path Engine v1.0
Darren Steptoe Consulting — Internal Use Only

Scenario setup

What this is Select a baseline assumptions profile (turnout band width defaults, etc.).
Why it matters Timeline affects later production planning (Phase 3+). For Phase 1 it’s reference only.
If unsure Leave blank; you can set it later when production planning is added.
What this changes In later phases, persuasion-first emphasizes persuasion volume before GOTV surge.

Universe

Best practice Use Registered in client-facing work unless Active is clearly sourced and agreed.
How it’s used Turnout votes = U × turnout %. Persuasion universe = U × persuasion %.

Turnout baseline (last two comparable cycles)

If unsure Pick the closest two cycles by election type and district boundaries.
Typical ±3 to ±5 is common. Keep it modest unless a unique cycle is expected.
Expected turnout %
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Best / Worst turnout %
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Votes per 1% turnout
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Candidates & vote landscape

Name Support %
Undecided
Total —
Best practice Stress-test against you. Don’t rely on a friendly break.

Persuasion universe

If unsure Use 30% for competitive/open; 25% for incumbent race; higher for chaotic municipal fields.
Risk lever Higher early vote compresses persuasion window and increases early workload.

Validation

    Win path (Expected)

    Projected turnout votes
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    Dynamic win threshold
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    Top competitor + 1 (after undecided allocation)
    Your projected votes
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    Persuasion votes needed (net)
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    Early votes (Expected)
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    Election Day votes (Expected)
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    Turnout − Early
    Persuasion universe
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    Stress test summary (client style)

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    Export mode B (future) can include full tables; Version 1 output keeps this summary concise.

    Conversion + contact math (Phase 2)

    Default This uses the model’s net persuasion votes needed as your support-ID goal.
    Example If 55% of conversations yield a support ID, set 55.
    Typical 15–30% depending on building type, time, and list quality.
    Conversations needed
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    Goal ÷ Support rate
    Doors needed
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    Conversations ÷ Contact rate
    Doors per shift
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    Doors/hour × Hours/shift
    Total shifts needed
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    Doors needed ÷ Doors/shift
    Shifts per week needed
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    Total shifts ÷ Weeks remaining
    Active volunteers needed
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    Shifts/week ÷ Shifts/volunteer/week
    This is a conversion/capacity estimator. It assumes 1 support ID ≈ 1 vote and does not model multi-touch, paid volume, phones/texts, or persuasion win rate (Phase 3).

    Assumptions snapshot

    This is the exact assumption block we’ll mirror in branded exports in later phases.

    Warnings & guardrails